The Come-Back, Day 16. To V or not To V.
The strong northeast wind continues today, and temperatures will rise again. It's starting to feel more like July than May. The forecast for next week (the first in June) is for temperatures to fall into digits more apropos of the time of year.
Many people are begining to be lackadaisical about Covid-19. Since infections and deaths are going down, and the country is being opened up, it seems like normality is re-appearing. There is talk of vaccines being tested, and one that seems to do what it's supposed to do.
But, even if there's an effective vaccine, there are logistical problems. First, how long will it take to make as many doses as people? Smallpox was erradicated through vaccination, but the world population was much smaller, and the vaccination was done over many years, since Edward Jenner first introduced it, back at the end of the eighteenth century, until the late 1960's, when it was taken off the vaccination schedule. At that rate, we might not get even fifty percent of the country vaccinated until ten years from now, and that's only counting the elderly and those with underlying medical problems. Herd immunity begins when at least 70% of the people are immune to a disease.
This means that Covid-19 will be with us for many years to come, albeit less disastrously than right now. The flu strain that caused the 1918 pandemic was also recurrent for years, until herd immunity was finally achieved. Deaths still occurred after the first and second waves, only they were fewer in number. Deaths will also occur from Covid-19, only they will probably be on a par with other contagious illnesses.
But, logistics aside, what if a country does have enough quantity to create herd immunity, but not everyone wants to get the vaccine? We see that with measles. There are parents who do not want to vaccinate their children, against the measles or anything else. That means measles still circulate, and can infect and kill children with suppressed immune systems that can't get vaccinated. Their immunity against diseases like measles depends on having most people around them with the vaccine active in their bodies. One healthy kid who gets the measles and gets over them, can spread it to their immune-suppressed playmate, and that playmate can die. Something similar will probably happen with Covid-19.
In fact, just over half of Americans would willingly get vaccinated against this coronavirus. The rest would have to think about it, or strongly consider it's a way for the government to experiment with you, or simply control you. In Spain and Europe, there are also people who would not get vaccinated for any reason. There have been outbreaks of childhood diseases, primarily in the area of Barcelona, because parents don't want to vaccinate their children. Vaccines in Spain are generally free, and very much encouraged, but I don't remember having to present my daughter's vaccination schedule to sign her up for school anywhere. In Massachusetts, when I was a child, it was obligatory.
In this day and age conspiracy theories belie our claim to superior knowledge over our ancestors. These theories have taken the place of beliefs in witches and warlocks. However, they did not simply appear as a result of the pseudo study made in the 1990's that affirmed that the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine caused autism in children. They've been around for a long time. When the British government made smallpox vaccination compulsory, the Anti-Vaccination League was formed in London. The United States has had a myriad of anti-vaccination associations, ever since the first one was set up in 1878, the Anti-Vaccination Society of America. That one, and others set up in New England and New York, helped strike down early laws that obligated parents to vaccinate their children, stating that the laws went against individual freedoms.
In the 1970's, after a study determined that 36 children had suffered transient neurological problems from the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine, the vaccination rate went down in Great Britain, and helped bring about three epidemics of diphtheria.
So, a vaccine is definitely someting to strive for, to protect the most vulnerable amongst us. But, because of human nature, Covid-19 will be around for some years yet.
Life continues.
Many people are begining to be lackadaisical about Covid-19. Since infections and deaths are going down, and the country is being opened up, it seems like normality is re-appearing. There is talk of vaccines being tested, and one that seems to do what it's supposed to do.
But, even if there's an effective vaccine, there are logistical problems. First, how long will it take to make as many doses as people? Smallpox was erradicated through vaccination, but the world population was much smaller, and the vaccination was done over many years, since Edward Jenner first introduced it, back at the end of the eighteenth century, until the late 1960's, when it was taken off the vaccination schedule. At that rate, we might not get even fifty percent of the country vaccinated until ten years from now, and that's only counting the elderly and those with underlying medical problems. Herd immunity begins when at least 70% of the people are immune to a disease.
This means that Covid-19 will be with us for many years to come, albeit less disastrously than right now. The flu strain that caused the 1918 pandemic was also recurrent for years, until herd immunity was finally achieved. Deaths still occurred after the first and second waves, only they were fewer in number. Deaths will also occur from Covid-19, only they will probably be on a par with other contagious illnesses.
But, logistics aside, what if a country does have enough quantity to create herd immunity, but not everyone wants to get the vaccine? We see that with measles. There are parents who do not want to vaccinate their children, against the measles or anything else. That means measles still circulate, and can infect and kill children with suppressed immune systems that can't get vaccinated. Their immunity against diseases like measles depends on having most people around them with the vaccine active in their bodies. One healthy kid who gets the measles and gets over them, can spread it to their immune-suppressed playmate, and that playmate can die. Something similar will probably happen with Covid-19.
In fact, just over half of Americans would willingly get vaccinated against this coronavirus. The rest would have to think about it, or strongly consider it's a way for the government to experiment with you, or simply control you. In Spain and Europe, there are also people who would not get vaccinated for any reason. There have been outbreaks of childhood diseases, primarily in the area of Barcelona, because parents don't want to vaccinate their children. Vaccines in Spain are generally free, and very much encouraged, but I don't remember having to present my daughter's vaccination schedule to sign her up for school anywhere. In Massachusetts, when I was a child, it was obligatory.
In this day and age conspiracy theories belie our claim to superior knowledge over our ancestors. These theories have taken the place of beliefs in witches and warlocks. However, they did not simply appear as a result of the pseudo study made in the 1990's that affirmed that the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine caused autism in children. They've been around for a long time. When the British government made smallpox vaccination compulsory, the Anti-Vaccination League was formed in London. The United States has had a myriad of anti-vaccination associations, ever since the first one was set up in 1878, the Anti-Vaccination Society of America. That one, and others set up in New England and New York, helped strike down early laws that obligated parents to vaccinate their children, stating that the laws went against individual freedoms.
In the 1970's, after a study determined that 36 children had suffered transient neurological problems from the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine, the vaccination rate went down in Great Britain, and helped bring about three epidemics of diphtheria.
So, a vaccine is definitely someting to strive for, to protect the most vulnerable amongst us. But, because of human nature, Covid-19 will be around for some years yet.
Life continues.
Comments
Post a Comment