The Adjusted Normal, 6. Storms in the Forecast.
These days the weather is very temperate, not at all normal for June, especially after a rather warmer than usual winter and spring. The forecast for this summer is for weather drier than normal, and warm, but not asphyxiating, temperatures.
Another forecast is for hurricanes. In the past couple of years, various hurricanes have decided to head northeast instead of continuing westward. They were mostly extra-tropical, that is, formed just outside tropical waters. But in October of last year, Hurricane Paul formed off our waters in the middle latitudes of the North Atlantic. That's very extra-tropical.
Climate change is spurring such anomalies. If years ago, it was common to have a hurricane change track once every ten years, now, it's becoming common for western Europe to face a hurricane at least once every year. At the moment, they're mostly category 1, but if ocean waters keep getting warmer, they will grow in intensity, as well.
I remember Hurricane David back in September of 1979. School had recently begun, and I remember being in my kitchen, cutting up brown paper bags to put covers on my schoolbooks. One of my favorites from the start was the American History book that I was looking over as the wind and rain slashed against the kitchen windows, and bent the boughs of the two elderly maples in the back yard in the greyed down afternoon. Back then, that a potent hurricane would survive and hit New England was exceptional.
In September of 1985, I was scheduled to swear the flag at a naturalization ceremony in Fanueil Hall. I had applied earlier in the year to be a U.S. citizen. I was sixteen and sponsored by my father, himself a naturalized citizen, who had been sponsored by my uncle. The interview had already taken place, and a citizenship exam had been waved when the examiner heard that I was attending Boston Latin School, and had already had a Civics class my freshman year. That year was the first I could apply, and I wanted to do so in order to be able to vote as soon as I turned eighteen.
But the ceremony had to be put off. The day before, school was cancelled as a hurricane warning was put into effect in all of New England. I still woke up early, and turned on the television in my room, to watch NewsCenter5 and its coverage of the coming storm. I vividly remember that at cuts to commercials, they put on Laura Brannigan's version of Gloria. "Gloria, you're always on the run now, running after somebody..."
The entire day, as the storm grew in intensity, and then screamed by, we were at home, watching the news. The wind buffeted the house, whined across the windows, and drove the rain into a curtain that obliterated the other side of the street. I'm not sure if the lights went off, but I'm pretty sure they must have at some point. Swaths of just about all the New England states were without power that weekend, as well as areas of southeastern Canada.
Since then, hurricanes that wound up hitting the northeast have grown in intensity. Sandy in 2012 was incredibly damaging, especially in the New York City area. But Europe is not escaping from their effects, now, not if the factors are there for them to form off the Iberian peninsula. The jet stream won't let those hurricanes go to the west, but will slam them against western Europe. We've started to get a small taste of that these past few years, and now we're going to know their bite here, as well.
The pandemic hasn't stopped climate change. The change is still there, and it's accelerating. The partial stop from the lockdowns across the world is simply a blip in its acceleration. There's rough weather ahead.
Life continues.
Another forecast is for hurricanes. In the past couple of years, various hurricanes have decided to head northeast instead of continuing westward. They were mostly extra-tropical, that is, formed just outside tropical waters. But in October of last year, Hurricane Paul formed off our waters in the middle latitudes of the North Atlantic. That's very extra-tropical.
Climate change is spurring such anomalies. If years ago, it was common to have a hurricane change track once every ten years, now, it's becoming common for western Europe to face a hurricane at least once every year. At the moment, they're mostly category 1, but if ocean waters keep getting warmer, they will grow in intensity, as well.
I remember Hurricane David back in September of 1979. School had recently begun, and I remember being in my kitchen, cutting up brown paper bags to put covers on my schoolbooks. One of my favorites from the start was the American History book that I was looking over as the wind and rain slashed against the kitchen windows, and bent the boughs of the two elderly maples in the back yard in the greyed down afternoon. Back then, that a potent hurricane would survive and hit New England was exceptional.
In September of 1985, I was scheduled to swear the flag at a naturalization ceremony in Fanueil Hall. I had applied earlier in the year to be a U.S. citizen. I was sixteen and sponsored by my father, himself a naturalized citizen, who had been sponsored by my uncle. The interview had already taken place, and a citizenship exam had been waved when the examiner heard that I was attending Boston Latin School, and had already had a Civics class my freshman year. That year was the first I could apply, and I wanted to do so in order to be able to vote as soon as I turned eighteen.
But the ceremony had to be put off. The day before, school was cancelled as a hurricane warning was put into effect in all of New England. I still woke up early, and turned on the television in my room, to watch NewsCenter5 and its coverage of the coming storm. I vividly remember that at cuts to commercials, they put on Laura Brannigan's version of Gloria. "Gloria, you're always on the run now, running after somebody..."
The entire day, as the storm grew in intensity, and then screamed by, we were at home, watching the news. The wind buffeted the house, whined across the windows, and drove the rain into a curtain that obliterated the other side of the street. I'm not sure if the lights went off, but I'm pretty sure they must have at some point. Swaths of just about all the New England states were without power that weekend, as well as areas of southeastern Canada.
Since then, hurricanes that wound up hitting the northeast have grown in intensity. Sandy in 2012 was incredibly damaging, especially in the New York City area. But Europe is not escaping from their effects, now, not if the factors are there for them to form off the Iberian peninsula. The jet stream won't let those hurricanes go to the west, but will slam them against western Europe. We've started to get a small taste of that these past few years, and now we're going to know their bite here, as well.
The pandemic hasn't stopped climate change. The change is still there, and it's accelerating. The partial stop from the lockdowns across the world is simply a blip in its acceleration. There's rough weather ahead.
Life continues.
That is amazing that they waved the exam because of BLS.
ReplyDeleteAs I remember, first he asked if I had had any kind of civics class. Then, he asked what school I went to. He merely nodded at my answer, and at the end, he told me I would get a letter telling me when the ceremony would be held. One exam less that year!
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