The Adjusted Normal, 59. The Descent of an Empire.

This morning, and earlier, during the wee hours, it rained. I believe it's the first rain we've had in almost two months. Our well appreciated it, but the forecast for the coming week is no longer one of summer weather. It seems like fall is sticking its nose in before anyone asked it in. 

In one of my classes we've been talking about learning languages. The student wants to check out which other language, besides English, might help further his curriculum vitae. He's looking a lot at Asian languages, but isn't sure. Once upon a time, knowing English was enough to open doors all over the place. Now, a new world is opening up in which knowledge of another language is welcome.

English is still the world's lingua franca. It became that from the end of the nineteenth century, onward. First, the British Empire spread it around the globe, and English became the language of administration and education in every British colony. Then, after World War I, the United States grew in influence through the nascent film industry, and through business. World War II ended, and the United States became the de facto world power, and English the key to business and culture. 

Before English, French was the language of culture and diplomacy. It was the language to learn if someone wanted to work in government or consider himself cultured. France was the most powerful economic center of Europe from the seventeenth century to at least the eighteenth. It re-acquired territory from the Hundred Years War onward, and, in the treaties with Spain and Germany, the French king demanded that French be the language used. In the cultural sense, Louis XIV was a strong patron of the arts, and his court was the cultural center of Europe. The French were also innovators in science, and the origin of important philosophical thinking. With time, other countries adopted French as a court language, especially the Russian court.

Will English follow the same path as French and decline in importance? It would depend on many factors. At the moment, the United States is still an important player in the world economy, but it is being eclipsed by China. I remember in the 1980's, that wary eyes were put on Japan, and its booming economy. There was fear that it would outstrip the United States. The rival is most likely in Asia, but it seems to be China, instead. Nominally a Communist state, it is really an oligarchy. The State controls everything, and it does what it can to negotiate profitably throughout the world in support of its industries.

Could Mandarin ever substitute English as the lingua franca? That is something yet to be seen. It would mean that world power, for the first time in modern history, would shift from the Western world, to Asia. Already, in some schools, Mandarin is offered as an elective. In other places, academies can easily be found that teach the language to anyone who wants to learn, from small children to hardened adults. Perhaps what is against its widespread use is its writing system. Other writing systems based on alphabets have an advantage over syllabic systems like Chinese. 

Because, what does seem certain is that the hegemony of the United States over the world economy is disappearing. At the moment, it maintains its cultural and military power, but, for how long? Unless there is a change in November, and the Orange Man is booted out of power, the decline is certain to be fast. 

Life continues.